After a week off, it’s time to make some money and replenish that bank account after it took a vacation beating.
The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Sonoma this weekend, with — spoiler alert — Chase Elliott (surprise!) the current favorite for the Toyota Save Mart 350 at the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Elliott, the series’ current road course ringer, sits at +550, followed by last year’s winner, Kyle Larson, at +650.
Martin Truex Jr. sits at 9/1 odds, followed by Kyle Busch (10/1), Ross Chastain (12/1) and AJ Allmendinger (also 12/1).
All right, let’s dive in. Here are a few plays heading into Sunday’s road course rumble.
Odds: +105 to finish ahead of Ross Chastain
Why he could do it: This is a spicy prop, and one I’d jump all over.
Hamlin is another road course guru, and while he hasn’t yet won at Sonoma (thanks in large part to some guy named Tony Stewart) he does have four top-5s in 15 career starts.
There’s also this …
Does anyone really think Hamlin is gonna let Chastain finish ahead of him this week? Or, for that matter, let him finish … at all?!
These two have a ton of unfinished business, and I don’t think Denny is about to let Ross the Boss forget it any time soon.
Odds: 30/1 to win the race
Why he could do it: Well, for starters … he’s really good here.
Harvick has a win (2017), six top-5s and 10 top-10s in 20 Sonoma starts, and is in dire need of a victory right now. Hard to believe, but Harvick — yes, the same guy who won nine times in 2020 — is mired in a 58-race winless streak right now, dating back to Bristol 18 months ago.
If ever he’s gonna break out, this is it.
Odds: 14/1 to win the race
Why he could do it: The Daytona 500 winner is still searching for that second victory, and I’d imagine this one looks juicy on the calendar.
Now, there’s a caveat … Cindric has never run a race at Sonoma. However, he’s got road racin’ in his blood, competing in seven IMSA events and winning several road races in the Xfinity Series.
Actually, more than several — five on Cindric’s 13 career Xfinity wins came on a road course. He’s also been good in a Cup car, finishing eighth at Austin earlier this year and ninth at Indianapolis last summer.
Not a bad gamble at +1400.
Odds: +1200 to win the race
Why he could do it: Speaking of last year’s Indy race …
Yeah, that was Allmendinger who ended up winning, despite running a limited Cup schedule.
The ‘Dinger dominates any road course he goes to, and I don’t think this one should be any different. He knows how to get to the front, stay in the mix, and pounce when the moment presents itself, so don’t be at all surprised if he’s in contention late on Sunday.
Frankly, I think Allmendinger is getting a little overlooked with this price, so I’d jump on it quick.
Odds: +550 to win the race
Why he could do it: Low-hanging fruit, I know, but come on … how can you not put a little something down on Chase at a road course!?
Half of Elliott’s career Cup wins (14) have come on a road course, including his only two last season. Chase finished second in this race last summer to teammate Kyle Larson, and he absolutely will be in the fold Sunday barring a wreck.
Speaking of those wrecks … it’s been tough-sledding for the No. 9 bunch as of late, running into major problems at Kansas, Charlotte and last week at Gateway.
They’re due, and they’re at the perfect place to end a tough stretch. Chase is the favorite for a reason, and you’d probably be silly not to throw a little money his way this weekend.